How to calculate conversion rates excluding checkout subscribers in Klaviyo

When running paid advertising campaigns to drive email signups, you may need to calculate conversion rates that exclude subscribers who signed up during checkout. This helps provide more accurate metrics for your marketing campaigns since checkout subscribers convert immediately and would skew your data.

Creating the Right Segment in Klaviyo

To get accurate conversion data for your marketing-driven subscribers:

1. In Klaviyo, create a segment of "Subscribed in the last 12 months"

2. Add a filter to exclude anyone whose signup source equals "Shopify checkout"

3. This will give you a clean list of only marketing-driven signups (from forms, pop-ups, landing pages, etc.)

Matching Subscribers to Orders

Once you have your filtered subscriber list:

1. Export this segment from Klaviyo

2. Match these subscribers against your Shopify order data

3. Identify how many of these subscribers placed an order after their signup date

Calculating Your Target CPA

With this data, you can now calculate meaningful metrics:

1. Calculate your conversion rate: (Number of subscribers who purchased) ÷ (Total marketing-driven subscribers) = Conversion rate

2. Determine average first-order profit from these customers

3. Calculate subscriber value: Conversion rate × Average first-order profit = Value per subscriber

4. Set your target Cost Per Acquisition (CPA) based on this subscriber value

This approach ensures your paid advertising metrics reflect the true value of marketing-driven subscribers, excluding those who would have purchased regardless through the checkout process.